Every few years I write down what I think the world is about to do, then position myself behind it. But the world keeps changing — so what seems right now can turn old later, through no fault of the believing. The real skill isn't being right; it's staying open, admitting when a belief has aged, and letting it go — because the time you save is the leverage. Here are the beliefs I started with, what time did to them, and the ones I hold now.
I didn't just believe it — I moved my career into it: Tokotalk (acquired by Shopee's parent SEA Ltd.), then the founding team at Plugo, on the ground in Indonesia and Thailand. The bet paid — and then it grew old, as the region's easy-growth chapter matured. I banked what it taught me and let it go. A winning belief is still a belief with a shelf life.
Six years in startups building exactly that: commerce infrastructure that sits between sellers, platforms, and buyers. Right for its era — but the center of gravity has moved on from software alone, toward what software can't conjure: compute, energy, resources. So I closed this one too, profitable as it was.
I learned it to conversational level, and the leverage is still compounding — in building networks, in professional rooms where a shared language changes what's possible, across cross-border work generally. The one position on this page I'm still holding.
Financial literacy wasn't a priority. I kept money simple — a few holdings, nothing active — and in the environment I started out in, that felt reasonable. Then the environment changed, and staying on the sidelines began to carry its own risk. So I reversed the position: I now trade actively with my own capital, where leverage and risk aren't theory. Because to adjust to change, you first have to see it — and money moves before the world does. Becoming financially literate with my own capital on the line turned the markets into my widest window on what's changing.
The lesson of those years isn't the hit rate — notice that three of the four positions above are closed, winners included. Beliefs age because the world doesn't stop moving, and a paid-off bet held too long becomes a losing one. The one I still hold stays open because it keeps earning its place, not out of loyalty. Admitting a belief is old and releasing it is how you buy back your time and attention. That's the biggest win, and the leverage.
Not predictions — observations. Some I'm already positioned behind; some I'm still deciding what to do about, and I'd rather say so than pretend. Each carries an expiry date I can't see yet; my job is to be the first to notice it.
Everyone else competes on price. The dividing line isn't who knows about AI — it's who uses it to create.
What I'm doingI work AI-first — this site, my research, and my materials are all built that way.
What's right today can be old tomorrow. Adaptability isn't a soft skill anymore; it's the skill. The retired belief above is my proof that I practice what I preach.
What I'm doingRe-reading my own hypotheses for expiry — in public — and rebuilding my toolkit every time the ground shifts.
Reach used to belong to institutions; now everyone is their own channel — or invisible. Waiting until you need an audience is how you end up without one.
What I'm doingBuilding my own channels now — this site among them — instead of waiting until I need them.
The more work AI does, the more the human relationship becomes the moat. That's a thesis about my profession: business development is the human-connection job.
What I'm doingMuch of my career has been spent in the rooms where trust is made — partnerships, field sales, communities — and I'm choosing my next chapter for the same reason.
There will always be geopolitical tensions. As the world fragments, mobility and flexibility will decrease — for resources, for capital, for human talent.
Still thinkingI haven't decided what to do about this one yet — naming it honestly comes first.
It was software, then hardware — and soon it will be energy and resources. Fiat money's value has always been declining; what's changing is that the world will acknowledge it more openly — and gold and resources will be valued more for it.
What I'm doingFollowing it through the markets with my own capital — gold and commodities included.
This one is no longer a prediction — it's already happening.
What I'm doingTrading the assets and studying the rails, stablecoin infrastructure included.
Holding beliefs lightly isn't the same as holding them weakly — I commit hard, and I release fast. If any of these bets overlaps with the one your team is making, I'd love to compare notes.